According to the preliminary results of the census-2021, the population of Kazakhstan has reached 19.186.015 people. This is a 20% (3.2 million people) increase since the previous census of 2009, which is a significant change for a 12-year intercensal period. Besides the change in the total population size, the preliminary results reveal important shifts in many aspects of life in Kazakhstan. The census finds that 61.2% of the population (11.741.342 people) live in cities, which is nearly 5% more than in 2009 [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2022]. The rates of the increase of the urban population vary a lot from region to region depending on different factors. However, the urbanization process is present in all parts of the country.
The census reveals interesting finds on the ethnic identity of the population. According to the results, those who identify as ethnically Kazakh constituted 70.4% of the population, followed by Russians (15.5%), Uzbeks (3.2%), Ukrainians (2%), Uyghurs (1.5%), Germans (1.2%), Tatars (1.1%), Azerbaijanis (0.8%), etc. The most noteworthy change since the last census of 2009 is the increase in the share of Kazakhs from 63.1% to 70.4%. The sharp decline in the percentage of ethnic groups is mostly due to the decrease in the number of people who identified themselves as ethnically Russian from 23.7% in 2009 to 15.5% in 2021 [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2022; 2023]. The changes in the percentage share of the rest of the ethnic groups were not highly significant in altering the general ethnic composition of the population.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the preliminary results of the census 2021 is the change in the ethnic structure of the urban population. An extrapolation of the general preliminary results to the most updated regional population statistics allows us to get a better view of the ethnic profile of the urban population and the urbanization itself. In general, it can be said that the patterns of change in the ethnic configuration of the urban population appear to be much more amplified in the urban demographics. Thus, the increase in the ethnic Kazakh population is much more pronounced in cities. For example, the share of ethnic Kazakhs in Kazakhstan has increased from 63.1% to 70.4% since the census of 2009 [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2010]. However, this change was more noticeable in the urban demographics, where the population identified as ethnically Kazakhs has increased from 56.6% to 67.2%. Similarly, the decline of ethnic Russians during the intercensal period was more noticeable in urban areas (from 30.9% to 19.1%) than in the total population (from 23.7% to 15.5%) [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2023].
| Table 1. The intercensal change of ethnic structure of the urban population in Kazakhstan | ||
| Ethnicity | Share in the urban population in 2009
|
Share in the urban population in 2021 |
| Kazakhs | 56.6 | 67.2 |
| Russians | 30.9 | 19.1 |
| Uzbeks | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Ukrainians | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Uyghurs | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Tatars | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Germans | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Source: Censuses of 2009 and 2021.
It is interesting to point out that although there is a very significant leaning towards the Kazakh population in urban areas, the population size of ethnic communities did not happen to change very much in absolute terms between the two censuses. For instance, the total population size of ethnic communities in cities stayed at around 4 million people thought the 12-year intercensal period, whereas the Kazakh population has increased from 5.1 to 7.9 million people [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2022]. In other words, the number of Kazakhs living in cities has increased by 2.5 million people making them one of the most rapidly urbanizing ethnic groups over the last intercensal period.
Figure 1. The ethnic profile of the urban population in Kazakhstan
Source: Prepared by the author based on data from census 2021.
Obviously, the growing percentage of ethnic Kazakhs among urban dwellers can be primarily attributed to migration from rural areas, however it is also true that ethnic Kazakhs are known to have slightly higher birth rates compared to most of the ethnic communities. This can be seen from the fact that the cities with the highest rates of population growth are usually the ones where Kazakhs make up the vast majority or the cities that have experienced a large influx of Kazakh population during the intercensal period. In general, large cities in the south and western regions of the country that are populated predominantly by the Kazakh population have presented the highest rates of demographic growth. Cities in the central, eastern, and northern regions of the country have generally seen population growth rates proportionate to the extent to which they experience the change of their ethnic structure towards the increasing percentage of ethnic Kazakhs.
The growth of the ethnically Kazakh population in cities of Kazakhstan can be put into a border context of historical spatial demographics of the country. It is fairly safe to say that the continuation of the urbanization process in Kazakhstan would entail a further increase in the percentage of Kazakhs living in cities due to the fact that the rural population in Kazakhstan is predominantly Kazakh. Currently, for instance, Kazakhs make up nearly two-thirds of the country’s rural population, and the urbanization process in Kazakhstan primarily signifies the urbanization of the Kazakh ethnicity. In 2009 nearly 56% of the Kazakhs lived in urban areas and by 2021 this figure was 67% for the first time [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2010]. In other words, it can be said that ethnic Kazakhs are catching up with other ethnic groups that have significantly higher rates of urbanization.
Figure 2. Share of different ethnicities in the total urbanization since 2009 (thousand people)
Source: Prepared by Author based on data from census 2021.
The demographic dynamics of ethnic communities have also been fairly dynamic throughout the period since the previous census of 2009. Although there has been no significant change in the total number of ethnic groups, some of them have been on the rise demographically while others have shown a clear decline. In general, it can be said that ethnic communities of European ethnicity are generally the most urbanized part of the population and tend to have the lowest rates of population growth due to both low natural population growth rates and high propensity to emigration from the country [Rowland, 1999]. Typically, these ethnic communities include ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, Germans, and Poles. However, the comparison of the preliminary census results against the results of the previous census of 2009 shows quite unexpected results. In particular, these ethnic groups generally have similar socio-cultural and religious backgrounds and have all presented a significant population increase, except for ethnic Russians who have seen a sharp decline of 21% since 2009. Thus, for instance, the number of ethnic Ukrainians has increased by 18.3%, for Belarusians this figure was 17.9%, for Germans – 26%, and Poles – 10.5% [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2022]. These patterns were present in both rural and urban areas. From the statistical point of view, these changes are difficult to explain and they are not in line with the previous censuses and statistical records. Therefore, the most straightforward explanation one can propose would be the change in self-identity preferences of people with mixed and multiple ethnic backgrounds. It might be the case that a significant share of people who identified themselves as ethnically Russians in 2009 chose to be identified as Ukrainians, Belarusians, Poles, etc. exposing non-Russian parts of their complex identity. Otherwise, the sudden contraction of the Russian ethnicity appears to be difficult to explain statistically.
Another group of ethnic communities includes the population with Turkic-Muslim ethnic backgrounds who also play an important role in the overall urbanization and shaping of the ethnic profile of the cities in Kazakhstan. These include Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Azerbaijanis, Turks, Tatars, Kyrgyz and others. The combined population size of the Turkic-Muslim communities exceeded 1.35 million in 2021, according to the preliminary results of the census and their share in the urban population reached 750 thousand people [Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, 2022]. Similar to Kazakhs, these ethnic communities generally have been urbanizing over the past intercensal period. For instance, the combined population size of Turkic-Muslim communities living in cities has grown nearly twice as fast as their total number since 2009.
The combined population size of the rest of the ethnic groups has shown positive demographic dynamics throughout the intercensal period of 2009-2021 both in urban and rural areas. These ethnic groups typically include ethnic Koreans, Dungans, Kurds, Tajiks, Chechens and others. Similar to the rest of the population, these ethnic groups have taken part in the overall urbanization process. On average, the demographic growth for this group of ethnic groups was approximately 22% faster in cities than in rural areas, which is a clear sign of active urbanization.
The inferences made from the analysis of the spatial dynamics of the different ethnic groups in Kazakhstan during the last intercensal period are consistent with the post-Soviet demographic adjustment to a new equilibrium state with a more uniform rate of urbanization among different ethnic groups. Despite constituting the vast majority, the 2021 census is the first census where ethnic Kazakhs were registered to make the two-thirds of the urban population. From this point of view, the large-scale influx of ethnic Kazakhs to urban areas of the country can be seen as a natural process of adjustment leading the Kazakh ethnicity to take their fair share in the urban environment. Therefore, it can be expected that the further urbanization process will also serve as a mechanism for changing the ethnic landscape of urban and rural environments leading to a more uniform (not necessarily equal) distribution of different ethnicities between the two.
It is worth mentioning that a harmonious distribution of different ethnicities in urban environments is essentially important for the functioning of any society because besides providing economic efficiency, the cities play a crucial role in being the centers of the political and socio-cultural life of any country. Cities also provide better involvement and participation of different ethnic groups in the nation-building process. Confinement of ethnic groups in small geographical areas far from major cities would be a negative sign indicating the exclusion of these people from the socio-political life of the country. Consequently, from this perspective, the better adjustment of the distribution of different ethnic groups in cities is clearly a positive sign. Cities are critically important in any attempt to foster interethnic understanding and cultural interchange [Amin and Thrift, 2002], which is especially true for such an ethnically diverse country as Kazakhstan.
References
Amin, Ash and Nigel J. Thrift (2002). Cities: Rethinking the Urban. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan (2010). Census 2009. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20100628101359/http://www.stat.kz/p_perepis/Pages/n_04_02_10.aspx. Accessed on 05.03.2023.
Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan (2022). Census 2021. Retrieved from https://sanaq.gov.kz/. Accessed on 05.03.2023.
Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan (2022). Census 2021. Retrieved from https://sanaq.gov.kz/. Accessed on 05.03.2023.
Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan (2023). Regional demographic statistics. Retrieved from https://stat.gov.kz/region/list. Accessed on 05.03.2023.
Rowland, Richard H. (1999). “Urban Population Trends in Kazakhstan during the 1990s”. Post-Soviet Geography and Economics 40(7): pp. 519-552.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy