December, 2023
The outcomes of the last annual BRICS summit in Johannesburg and the G20 summit in New Delhi sparked extensive debates on the world’s apparent shift towards multipolarity due to their enlargement. The transformation from the BRICS to the BRICS+ and the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 indeed became important milestones for strengthening the voice of emerging nations. While acknowledging the potential and risks of enlargements, the paper reflects on the implications of these changes.
The 15th annual BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22–24, 2023. The summit, which brought together representatives of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, was focused on inclusive multilateralism, mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development, and deepening interpersonal exchanges. The significant outcome of the summit was the expansion of the BRICS to the BRICS+ format, which was possible due to the decision to admit Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as full members of the BRICS as of January 1, 2024. In addition, it was proposed to develop the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries by the next summit, which will further expand the coverage of BRICS+ [BRICS, 2023].
The expansion of the group of leading developing economies stimulated two major discussions. First, one could conclude the amplifying voice of emerging countries and the recognition of multipolar reality where the Global South broadens its positions. The Global South has been attempting to change the existing rules in order to address the challenges of emerging countries, including major structures such as the UN Security Council and global financial institutions. Even the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres acknowledges the need for reforms in global governance structures, where multilateral institutions must be reformed to reflect the power and economic realities [Plessis et.al., 2023].
It is also evidenced by the growing cumulative weight of the geopolitical and economic interests of the BRICS countries in connection with the inclusion of new members. In particular, an invitation to join the major global oil producers and political and economic powers of the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is anticipated to result in strengthening the value of the grouping. Argentina, as the third-largest economy in Latin America, strengthens the voice of its continent together with Brazil. Egypt’s strategic location, which gives it access to the Suez Canal and is supported by Russia and China, is probably viewed as a potentially important aspect of BRICS expansion. Iran, with its second-largest gas reserves and significant oil reserves, could be a major contradiction to the US and its allies due to its sanctions. Ethiopia, being among the fastest-growing economies and the second-most populous nation in Africa, reinforces the African voice in the grouping. In other words, the bloc adds three major Middle Eastern energy producers (Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE); and the second-largest economies of Latin America and Africa (Argentina and Ethiopia).
The growth of the BRICS demonstrates an aspiration to amplify the voice of developing nations by increasing the representation of different emerging markets and by pursuing stability and prosperity to increase the overall prosperity of the developing world. The adoption of new guiding principles, standards, and procedures might lead BRICS to become a more alluring structure for consensus-building and dialogue in the developing world [CFR, 2023]. The choice of the new members could also be viewed as a solution to reinforce the voice of middle powers with significant economic, energy, and demographic capacity while utilizing geopolitical challenges with their robust geo-economic potential.
Meanwhile, despite numerous speculations due to having China, Russia, and Iran on board, the bloc seems to refrain from taking sides in conflicts and from strengthening anti-Western calls through BRICS mechanisms. With China being a major heavyweight within the bloc, one could suggest it has been threatening to amplify its agenda of opposing Western dominance and to strengthen the leaning towards China of new members. Similarly, Russia and Iran, both under sanctions and international isolation, are also perceived as uniting within the bloc to voice their perspectives and challenge the Western vision of international order. However, rather than concentrating on their differences with the US and other rival powers, the bloc appears to favor the development of a multipolar world. Moreover, it is unlikely that, with India and Brazil within the core of the BRICS that are not in favor of losing their close relations with the US, the bloc might become an antagonistic gathering against the US-led alliance. Instead, BRICS+ might contribute to creating new mechanisms that will encourage an interconnected world and represent the needs of emerging countries.
The G20 is another dialogue platform that gathers 19 countries, and the European Union has invited the African Union to enhance the representation of the emerging parts of the world. The 18th G20 Summit held in New Delhi on September 9–10, 2023 culminated with the admission of the African Union, the first expansion since its creation in 1999. In par with the European Union, the African Union will represent the voice of Africa on the global platform, which is admittedly a justified step for reinforcing African issues at a global level.
Under India’s G20 presidency, the summit paid significant attention to the issues of sustainable development, green development, and energy transition. Among the important outcomes in this regard was the launch of the Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA), a new organization aimed at the creation and adoption of sustainable biofuels with appropriate standards and certification. The commitment to implement the G20 High-Level Principles on Lifestyles for Sustainable Development should also be highlighted as an important joint step towards cooperation for green development and climate finance. The G20 members also encouraged the objective of tripling the amount of renewable energy produced globally [G20, 2023].
Besides, the G20 Leaders’ Summit paid particular attention to bolstering Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and financial inclusion by addressing common global issues in taxation, financial inclusion, and debt vulnerabilities. Advancing the digital public infrastructure, including security, policy, and regulation of crypto assets and digital currency, was among the spheres raised within the G20 mechanisms this year.
As for geopolitical contradictions, the exclusion of the mention of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the G20 Declaration, compromising by formulating respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, was calculated as a diplomatic success of India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also made remarkable efforts to stimulate discussions on the extension of the UN Security Council and reforming international institutions in order to address the realities of the globe.
In terms of improving connectivity, India, during its G20 presidency, put forward an ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which might be seen as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. According to a memorandum signed by the European Union and seven nations, India will be linked to the UAE via a shipping route, and from there, a rail line will connect to Saudi Arabia and Jordan before reaching the Israeli port of Haifa, where it will reach the Mediterranean Sea’s shores and connect to Europe via the port of Piraeus in Greece. It is expected that the diversification with new connectivity channels could further advance trade networks and reinforce the trade potential of emerging economies along the route. However, not all G20 members agree with such a layout. Türkiye in particular is against the proposed route due to its concerns about being bypassed and because the proposed route passes through the disputed waters [Gilani, 2023].
By and large, the G20 presidency of India had facilitated the advancement of the weight of emerging economies within the bloc, where, in comparison to the BRICS, the G7 leaders are also included along with other largest economies. The agenda of the summit, by emphasizing the need for more inclusive growth, distinguishing the facilitation of Sustainable Development Goals, and reforming international financial and political structures in order to address the challenges of the emerging globe, meets India’s aspirations of becoming the leader of the Global South.
Overall, the outcomes of the BRICS and G20 allow for the following trends in global governance:
The elevation of the participation of the Global South in global governance. Despite certain disparities and contradictions, emerging economies have united in calls for fairer systems that address the challenges of emerging countries, including changes to established international mechanisms.
Mitigating the contradictions between Russia and the West. While acknowledging the significance of Russia in global affairs, BRICS and G20 members, contrary to the G7, do not try to exclude Russia from discussions due to Russia’s aggressive stance. The so-called developing world attempts to keep anti-Russian campaigns out of major discussions, understanding the importance of extensive dialogue while working on global issues.
Increasing an African voice. Both BRICS and the G20 have encouraged African nations to participate in the global governance structures by including Ethiopia, the rising star of Africa, in the BRICS+ and the African Union in the G20. This encourages us to hope that the challenges facing the African continent will be addressed more precisely and that new mechanisms meeting the needs of Africa will be fostered.
Beyond geopolitical development issues, addressing global challenges such as climate change, green and digital development, inequality, gender and other emerging issues can help create more equitable international agencies and structures.
On the other hand, the growing geopolitical influence of developing nations does not mean an instant overhaul of the existing order. More time and effort are needed to start producing fundamental changes that correspond to the new multipolar world order, where emerging nations have more voices than ever before. It is also a comprehensive task given the serious contradictions among the leading developing countries, such as China and India, whether due to their quest for global governance or rival stances on any issue.
Kazakhstan, although not commonly regarded as part of the Global South, positions itself as an emerging economy with adherence to global norms and values and has all the chances to be in the club. At least, it could be included in the BRICS+’s list of prospective partner countries in virtue of being a leading economy not only in Central Asia but also in the post-Soviet space. Thanks to stable growth and a recognised political and economic reputation, Kazakhstan occupies a strong position in the international arena and accordingly has every chance to claim its place in global governance structures.
References:
BRICS (2023). XV BRICS Summit Johannesburg II Declaration. Retrieved from https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-1.pdf. Accessed on 21.09.2023.
CFR (2023). The BRICS Summit 2023: Seeking an Alternate World Order? Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2023-seeking-alternate-world-order. Accessed on 21.09.2023.
G20 (2023). G20 – Background Brief. Retrieved from https://www.g20.org/content/dam/gtwenty/gtwenty_new/about_g20/G20_Background_Brief.pdf. Accessed on 21.09.2023.
Gilani, Iftikhar (2023). India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor: A passage of possibilities. Retrieved from https://frontline.thehindu.com/world-affairs/how-the-india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor-opens-up-a-passage-of-possibilities/article67344064.ece#:~:text=While%20this%20project%20has%20sparked,without%20T%C3%BCrkiye%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said. Accessed on 21.10.2023.
Plessis, Carien du, Anait Miridzhanian and Bhargav Acharya (2023). BRICS welcomes new members in push to reshuffle world order. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-poised-invite-new-members-join-bloc-sources-2023-08-24/. Accessed on 21.09.2023.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.