Geopolitics considers space from the point of view of the state. Geopolitics is a science that studies a complex of geographical, historical, political and other factors that interact with each other and have a great impact on the strategic potential of the state. Kazakhstan’s role and place in the modern world is largely determined by its geopolitical location. One of the important components of geopolitical position is the ability to control key areas and geographical centers. Geopolitics in Kazakhstan is usually mentioned in the context of discussions about the country’s geopolitical position. The country is advantageous because it is located in the center of Eurasia, at the crossroads of Islamic, Confucian and Christian civilizations and as a crossroads of trade routes. In addition to that, rich natural resources can be added to the listed advantages (Semedov, 2022).
Kazakhstan’s official name is the Republic of Kazakhstan, located in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The population as of April 1, 2023, was 19,832,737 people (one of the lowest population densities in the world) (Stat.gov.kz, 2023) and the territory area is 2,724,9 km², which ranks 9th in the world in terms of territory. It is located in the center of Eurasia between the Caspian Sea, the Lower Volga region, the Urals, Siberia, China and Central Asia. It borders in the north and west with Russia (7,591 km, the longest continuous land border in the world), in the east with China (1,783 km), in the south with Kyrgyzstan (1,242 km), Uzbekistan (2,351 km) and Turkmenistan (426 km) (Akorda.kz, no date). It is the largest country of the Organization of Turkic States in terms of territory and is washed by the waters of the inland Caspian and Aral seas. It has no access to the World Ocean and is the largest country in the world with such a feature.
Kazakhstan is a multinational state with wide ethnocultural, linguistic, religious, racial and national diversity. Kazakhstan is officially a democratic, secular, unitary, constitutional republic with a diverse cultural heritage.
Kazakhstan was the last of the union republics to declare independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union – in December 1991. While the first president of the republic, Nursultan Nazarbayev, resigned from his post in March 2019, Senate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took over as interim president and then won the elections on June 9, 2019 (Muhametshina, Bocharova, 2019). Kazakhstan successfully managed the great economic crisis experienced after the Soviet Union and grew its country’s economy 17 times in 30 years. Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product was 11,4 billion dollars after gaining independence, increasing this number to 190 billion dollars in 2021, reaching an important position in Central Asian geopolitics (Semin, 2022).
The country is a member of the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization (WTO), Organization of Turkic States (OTS), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and TURKSOY. In this context, it is noteworthy that Kazakhstan is mostly involved in organizations where one of the major players is Russia, and it is possible to say that its interaction with the Turkic world has increased recently.
Kazakhstan is a unique country with a rich cultural and historical heritage located in the heart of Eurasia. Its geographically advantageous location, subsoil full of natural resources, and stable economy allowed it to become the most prosperous in Central Asia. In just 3 years (2020–2022), the gross inflow of foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector amounted to more than 13,4 billion dollars. The mining and metallurgical complex is the second largest sector after the oil and gas industry. The mining and metals industry accounts for 8,7% of GDP, of which 5,8% comes from the metallurgical industry (Adilet.zan.kz, 2022).
In general, Kazakhstan ranks 6th in the world in terms of natural resource reserves. If there are 110 chemical elements in the periodic table, 99 of them can be found in the depths of Kazakhstan. In terms of proven oil reserves, Kazakhstan ranks 12th place in the world – 3,9 billion tons, in terms of natural gas reserves ranks 14th – 2,7 trillion cubic meters. In 2021, oil production amounted to 85,9 million tons (the share of domestic consumption is 23%), gas production was 54,2 billion cubic meters (61%). Over the past 30 years, Kazakhstan has increased oil production by 3,5 times, and in terms of oil production for 2021, it ranks 13th in the world (2% of global production). More than 80% of the oil produced in Kazakhstan is exported; the rest is supplied to the domestic market for processing. In the structure of total exports of Kazakhstan in 2021, oil makes up 51,5% of all goods, and gas – 3,8%. The republican budget of Kazakhstan is replenished by 30-50% from the oil and gas industry. Over the past 10 years, the average share of oil and gas in the gross inflow of foreign investment into Kazakhstan was about 33%. (Jusananalytics.kz, 2022). It should not be forgotten that Kazakhstan’s natural underground resources have great geopolitical importance in terms of finding an alternative supplier to Russia for the EU market and China, which are in need of energy. In this context, transporting oil to Germany through Poland via the Druzhba pipeline and to Türkiye via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline increases the value of the country.
The foreign policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan is characterized by a multi-vector course, peacefulness, balance and pragmatism. This strategy was defined by First President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the very beginning of the 1990s and has been consistently and successfully implemented for three decades, seeking equally to maintain good relations with its two major neighbors, Russia and China, as well as the United States and the Western world.
A pragmatic multi-vector policy has allowed Kazakhstan to integrate into the world community, promote its national interests as effectively as possible, and create ideal external conditions for resolving internal development issues, including economic: Kazakhstan is the undisputed leader in Central Asia in attracting foreign direct investment. It is a realistic approach for Kazakhstan to follow a balanced policy, especially in its relations with Moscow, Beijing and Washington, and to adopt an active neutral foreign policy strategy in regional and global developments. This balanced policy also strengthens its geopolitical position in the regional and international arena. In this context, when the focus points in foreign policy are taken into consideration, it should be noted that it has made significant progress towards gaining momentum both in the Turkic world and in world politics. It is also noteworthy that Kazakhstan is the first Central Asian country to chair the OSCE. On the other hand, its presence in important international platforms such as the Astana Conference on Cooperation and Confidence Building Measures in Asia and the SCO strengthens its geo-strategic position (Semin, 2022).
Oxford University geography lecturer Halford John Mackinder could never have imagined that his 1904 article in the Geographical Journal would have such a profound impact on 20th-century geopolitical thinking. Mackinder came to the conclusion that whoever managed to take control of the so-called “World Island” – an area stretching from Siberia to modern Ukraine – would become the main world power and would dominate other countries. The British geographer also called this zone the “Axial Region”, “Core”, “Heartland” or “Continental Core”. He identified this area through a detailed study of the great empires in human history. By “Heartland” Mackinder meant mainly Central Asia and Eastern Europe. (Inosmi.ru, 2022). In this context, Kazakhstan, which is a bridge between north and south, west and east, is considered the “heartland” country of Central Asia, due to its geographical location and rich natural resources, increasing the geopolitical importance of the region. For this reason, this region is becoming the focus of attention of countries such as the USA, the EU, Russia, China and Türkiye.
It is possible to say that Kazakhstan is also located on an important route connecting Europe and Asia. In other words, the fact that there are 11 actively operating international transit corridors in Kazakhstan shows that the country has become an important transportation route. While Kazakhstan, located in the center of Eurasia, defined as the heartland by all geopolitical theories, is a vital geography for Russia’s southward policy; it is one of the main routes preferred in China’s strategy of opening up to the West within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Considering that Kazakhstan-China trade has increased by 14,9% on an annual basis in the last 25 years, it is estimated that the Belt and Road Initiative will contribute over 25 billion dollars to the Kazakh economy (Burke-White, 2022), reduce transportation times and costs, and therefore increase the geopolitical importance of Kazakhstan. The fact that Kazakhstan is a transit route enables Central Asian countries to establish relations with Moscow and Beijing. This situation makes Kazakhstan a key actor for Russia, China and Central Asian countries.
It should not be ignored that the Mazar-ı Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar route railway line, which is planned to be established with South Asia via Uzbekistan, will make Astana even more valuable, especially in terms of geography. It is also worth remembering that Kazakhstan’s ports such as Aktau and Kuryk, located in the Caspian Sea, connect Central Asia to the Western World via the route of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye. In short, Kazakhstan’s geopolitical location makes this country a bridge between north-south and east-west; the multifaceted foreign policy followed has enabled Astana to become an important actor.
One of the issues related to regional security is the Trans-Caspian Corridor, which is connected to the Central Corridor. The corridor attracts attention as a new and powerful alternative extending from China (and even from South Asia in the process) to Europe. In the current situation, it is not possible to say that the sea lanes are safe enough for the Beijing administration. In particular, the increasing influence of the USA in the Pacific, the problems over Taiwan and the increasing competition in the Arctic are directing Beijing towards land corridors, which are safer routes. In addition, while China is opening up to the West on land, it is concerned about an unstable region like Afghanistan. For this reason, the Trans-Caspian Corridor appears as the safest route for Beijing (Erol, 2021).
Global geopolitics is changing rapidly after the Russia-Ukraine crisis. While the Western world reacts to Russia’s aggression in a harmonious manner through sanctions, it is also accelerating its influence in the region by holding summit meetings with Central Asia and Kazakhstan. The realization of the EU-Central Asia and Germany-Central Asia summit meetings will lead to the development of Kazakhstan, which has geostrategic and geopolitical importance in the West’s efforts to find an alternative to Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, either in terms of energy or transit routes by bypassing Russia. It is an indicator that its value is increasing. As the West begins to become active in the Central Asian region, the summit meetings of China, India and Russia with Central Asia stand out, creating a competitive environment.
As a result, Kazakhstan, which has the 9th largest landmass in the world in terms of surface area, is located in the center of Eurasia, as Mackinder stated, and is of great geopolitical importance in terms of connecting China to the West and Russia to the East. Kazakhstan, which has 99 elements of Mendeleev’s table on its territory, attracts the attention of the whole world with its rich natural resources, expands its mutual trade ability and highlights the geopolitical importance of Central Asia. The country’s ability to pursue a multilateral foreign policy and establish pragmatic relations with neighboring states such as Russia and China, as well as the USA and Western countries, provides Astana with an extra advantage in the conduct of international diplomacy. In this context, the country’s place and importance in Central Asian geopolitics is invaluable. Due to its rich natural resources, it strengthens the country’s position in the international arena by emerging as a reliable supplier as an alternative to Russia in managing the West’s energy crisis. By hosting various corridors and becoming a transit country, it has managed to make its name in the international trade and transportation sector. In this context, significant natural resources, great potential for the development of intercontinental transportation and communication systems and other factors mentioned have allowed Kazakhstan to safely enter the world geopolitical coordinate system and take its deserved place in the world community.
References:
Adilet.zan.kz (2022). Analysis of the current situation of industrial and innovative development in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P1800000846. Accessed on 23.09.2023.
Akorda.kz (no date). Republic of Kazakhstan, Retrieved from https://www.akorda.kz/ru/republic_of_kazakhstan/kazakhstan Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Erol, Mehmet Seyfettin (2021). Kazakhstan: Heartland of the “Geopolitical Triangle”. Retrieved from https://www.ankasam.org/kazakistan-jeopolitik-ucgenin-kalpgahi/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CBar%C4%B1%C5%9F%20Kurucu%E2%80%9D%20%C3%9Clke%E2%80%A6,tercih%20edilen%20ana%20g%C3%BCzerg%C3%A2hlardan%20biri. Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Inosmi.ru (2022). Heartland Theory: Whoever controls this territory, which extends to Ukraine, will become the ruler of the world. Retrieved from https://inosmi.ru/20220403/istoriya-253593715.html. Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Jusananalytics.kz (2022). Overview of Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Industry. Retrieved from https://jusananalytics.kz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/obzor-neftegazovoj-otrasli-rk.pdf. Accessed on 23.09.2023.
Muhametshina, Elena and Bocharova, Svetlana (2019). Why Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned, Retrieved from https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2019/03/19/796778-pochemu-nursultan-nazarbaev-ushel, Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Semedov, Semen. (2022). Kazakistan’ın Jeopolitiği. Bulletin Ablaykhan. UDK 13, DOI 10.48371/ISMO.2022.48.2.004.
Semin, Ali (2022). Central Asian Geopolitics and Kazakhstan. Retrieved from https://www.star.com.tr/acik-gorus/orta-asya-jeopolitigi-ve-kazakistan-haber-1743032/. Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Stat.gov.kz (2023). About the demographic situation for January-March 2023, Retrieved from https://stat.gov.kz/ru/news/o-demograficheskoy-situatsii-za-yanvar-mart-2023-goda/, Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Trade.gov (2022). Kazakhstan-Country Commercial Guide. Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/kazakhstan-mining-equipment-and-services. Accessed on 23.09.2023.
Burke-White, William (2022). Kazakhstan holds the keys to a new geopolitical balance in Asia. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3539707-kazakhstan-holds-the-keys-to-a-new-geopolitical-balance-in-asia/. Accessed on 08.10.2023.
World-nan.kz (2022). Natural Resources of Kazakhstan. Retrieved from https://world-nan.kz/blogs/prirodnye-resursy-kazakhstana. Accessed on 22.09.2023.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.