A National Vision is a concept that determines the mid-term and long-term development goals of a country and provides the basis for the development of national strategies and implementation plans. The national political leadership usually shapes the concept of the National Vision. The strength and credibility of such a vision depend on political commitment to the vision, as well as on the integrity of leadership perceived by citizens.
The number of countries with national development plans has increased steadily in recent years, from 62 in 2006 to 134 in 2018, out of 195 countries. Given the growing need to set priorities, ensure financial sustainability and effectiveness, and avoid a piecemeal, isolated approach, most countries have chosen to develop a national vision and develop a national planning system. Organizing the preparation of a National Vision is a complex process that requires time and capacity to analyze the current situation (progress achieved and remaining challenges), define the roles and responsibilities of various structures, ensure macro and budgetary coherence, and involve key internal and external stakeholders for consultation and formulation, tracking progress, and adjusting implementation.
In addition to national development planning, policy planning, and priority setting can be accomplished through the development of a government program, fundamental laws and regulations, and statements of policy priorities or political commitments to the donor community or other countries. This may also include the development of strategic planning guidelines to support the development of sectoral and institutional strategic plans (World Bank, 2022).
The state especially urgently needs the concept of a National Vision when it is going through a difficult period in its history when social relations and values in the surrounding world are changing at an unprecedented speed. The society of such a dramatically transforming country must adapt to the challenges of the global community while maintaining the positive aspects of its cultural values that distinguish it from other nations. If we are talking about a post-Soviet state, which is self-determined after the collapse of a huge power, then after thirty years of independence such a society needs to take stock of past stated goals and priorities and determine to what extent they have been realized. At the same time, society must formulate its expectations and prospects for the future. These expectations may include improvements in education and health care or reforms in economics and environmental policy. In any case, society must have a medium and long-term development planning program.
Beyond the national strategic level, planning can focus on financial, economic, territorial, and many other areas. In contrast to the rigid national planning system of the former Soviet Union, there has recently been a worldwide focus on flexible planning, especially the strategic choices that need to be made to make development more sustainable while enhancing process efficiency.
Thus, the preparation of the National Vision is aimed at solving several issues: Perspective. Where do we want to go as a country in the medium to long term? What role do we want our country to play in the world? What are our fundamental values and priorities to achieve this goal?
Critical success factors: What are the main keys to achieving our vision? “Required” components?
Assessing our current situation. How well are we doing today on each of the critical success factors? How does (and will continue to influence) the external and internal environment affect our ability to succeed? Which countries will we use as benchmarks (other countries in our region? or OECD countries?) and what are the gaps that separate us from our benchmarks?
Strategic goals: What do we have today? What goals do we want to achieve to close critical gaps?
Tactics: What is the best way to achieve these critical goals, given our current resources and environment? Which key stakeholders do we need to involve during the process and how?
Action plans: Who will carry out the planned tactics? When? What resources are needed to achieve the desired goals? How will the various departments (ministries, national departments, subnational governments, etc.) be coordinated? How can we measure our progress toward these goals?
Resources: How can we most effectively mobilize our budgetary resources in the medium to long term to achieve our goals and objectives?
Evaluation: What have we achieved to date? Have we achieved our goals? What could have been done differently? What lessons can further enrich the planning process?
Resolving these issues requires an objective consideration of the results of reforms. The National Vision is a powerful tool for inclusive development. A sound strategic planning framework can help create a favorable investment climate, improve policy and budgetary credibility, and increase investor confidence in existing commitments.
In this regard, the National Visions of two Central Asian states – Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – can be considered an example.
The Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan for 2022 – 2026 and the State Program for its implementation include: building a humane state by raising the honor and dignity of man and further developing a free civil society; making the principles of justice and the rule of law a fundamental and necessary condition for the country’s development; accelerated development of the national economy and ensuring high growth rates; implementation of fair social policy, and development of human capital; ensuring spiritual development and raising this area to a new level; approach to global problems based on national interests; strengthening the country’s security and defense potential, and maintaining an open, pragmatic, and active foreign policy (Official website of the President of Uzbekistan, 2021).
The Uzbek concept clearly shows the goal of building a democratically transformed country and the foundation of the Third Renaissance, bearing in mind that, according to scientists, Uzbekistan in ancient times went through two outstanding cultural phases – the First Renaissance (Enlightenment – IX-XII centuries) and the Second (Temurid – XIV-XV centuries) Renaissance. During the previous stage of the country’s development which has witnessed a slow progress of the development of democratic freedoms. Perhaps for this reason, the social and humanitarian components can be traced in the words of President Mirziyoyev, who outlined the concept of “New Uzbekistan” as a state, “the main goal of which is to ensure a free, comfortable and prosperous life for our multinational people. This is a state that is developing in strict accordance with generally accepted norms in the field of democracy, human rights, and freedoms, based on the principles of friendship and cooperation with the international community.” New Uzbekistan is a country of democratic transformations, great opportunities, and practical actions (Official website of the President of Uzbekistan, 2021).
Based on this, the priorities of state policy are to improve the well-being and standard of living of people, create jobs and sources of income for this purpose, reduce poverty, and develop cities and villages. The main task remains to ensure the rights, freedoms, and legitimate interests of every citizen of the country, regardless of nationality, language, and religion, to improve the level and quality of life of the people of Uzbekistan. The successful implementation of this strategy can be considered the growth of Uzbekistan’s position from 93 in 2016 to 78 in 2023 in the international Rule of Law Index ranking (World Justice Project, 2016). In September 2023, the authorities adopted the National Development Strategy of Uzbekistan (NDS) until 2030. The document outlines the country’s main development goals and key reforms in various sectors to be implemented by the end of this decade. This is the third NDS adopted by the government since 2017, with the previous two covering the periods 2017-2021 and 2022-2026 (the latter is under implementation). The NDS 2030 reflects Uzbekistan’s various aspirations, including plans to rise to the ranks of highly developed countries to increase the well-being of its citizens. The new strategy sets out a set of 100 priority actions the government will take to drive progress in five key areas. The implementation of the NDS is designated as a key goal for all government departments. The World Bank remains committed to working with the government to help Uzbekistan achieve its key development goals by 2030 (World Bank, 2023).
In the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Development Strategy “Kazakhstan-2030” was prepared in 1997, which marked the beginning of a new stage in the economy of Kazakhstan. The dominant directions of this strategy were the tasks of qualitative diversification of the economy, technological modernization, and the development of human capital. The concept developers considered the weak link of the previous stage to be the insufficient development of knowledge-intensive services and the manufacturing industry. In addition to the mentioned strategy, several more official development programs have appeared over the past years: Development Strategy of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2050 (2012), National Plan “100 Concrete Steps” (2015), National Priorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period until 2025, National Development Plan until 2025 year, etc. and experts rightly believe that the existence of too many policies, “inflation” of policies as they call it, interferes with the building of linkages, coherence with planning, budgeting, management and monitoring of program implementation, which slows down economic growth instead of it’s torpedoing (Mukhamediev and Temerbulatova, 2021).
According to the World Bank Group, maintaining and accelerating economic growth in a rapidly changing global landscape requires a reassessment of a country’s reform programs. Following the population’s expectations, Kazakhstan requires a dynamic and fast-growing economy that will generate the necessary resources and capabilities to solve social problems, improve infrastructure, and improve public services. Without prioritizing economic growth and decisive structural reforms, the country will stagnate.
This requires a focus on implementing reforms that promote economic growth and productivity to raise Kazakhstan’s economic standards to the level of wealthier countries in the high-income group (World Bank, 2024). The National Development Plan until 2025 aimed to ensure the implementation of seven basic principles: fair distribution of benefits and responsibilities; the leading role of private entrepreneurship; fair competition; productivity growth, increasing complexity and technology of the economy; human capital development; environmental protection; making informed decisions by the state and responsibility for them to society. Let’s look at the results of only one of the directions of this National Plan, namely the fair distribution of benefits and responsibilities. We have to state that in 2012 the Gini index was 28.2, and in 2023 – it was 27.8 (Wisevoter, 2024), that is, the uneven distribution of income of the population has decreased slightly, but the level of social inequality in the state as a whole remains.
Even though 2025 has not yet arrived, and the National Plan has not been implemented in many respects, the Agency for Strategic Development and Reforms, on the instructions of the President, has prepared a new draft of the National Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2029, posted on the “Open Legal Regulations” portal for the public discussions until February 19, 2024 (Zakon.kz, 2024). Apparently, in this regard, we should also expect adjustments to the National Strategy 2050.
In conclusion, we note that the concepts of the National Vision of any country can change, they have to be adapted to changing internal and external turbulent conditions and circumstances. If there are no real positive consequences, it is clear that either the strategy, methods, or priorities are chosen incorrectly and require significant adjustment. Not every country can afford such repeated economic experiments. Kazakhstan can still do it. However, in any society, fatigue from ineffective reforms can negatively affect citizens’ trust in government structures. Only the steady gradual implementation of the National Vision and plans for the economic and social transformation of the country can ensure its stability.
References
Mukhamediev, Bulat and Temerbulatova, Zhansaya (2021). Results of three decades. Retrieved from https://dknews.kz/ru/eksklyuziv-dk/199321-itogi-treh-desyatiletiy. Accessed on 14.01.2024.
Official website of the President of Uzbekistan (2021). The New Uzbekistan is Becoming a Country of Democratic Transformations, Big Opportunities, and Practical Deeds. Retrieved from https://president.uz/ru/lists/view/4547. Accessed on 14.01.2024.
Wisevoter.com (2024). Gini coefficient by country. Retrieved from https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/gini-coefficient-by-country/ Accessed on 11.02.2024.
World Bank (2022). Delivering Azerbaijan’s vision and national strategy: Strategic Planning report global knowledge-sharing. Retrieved from https://translate.google.com/?hl=ru&sl=kk&tl=ru&text=National%20strategic%20planning%20serves%20multiple/. Accessed on 16.01.2024.
World Bank (2023). Overview of Uzbekistan. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uzbekistan/overview. Accessed on 15.02. 2024.
World Bank (2024). Kazakhstan Economic Update. Winter 2023-2024 Shaping Tomorrow: Reforms for Lasting Prosperity. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kazakhstan/publication/economic-update-winter-2023-24. Accessed on 16.02.2024.
World Justice Project (2016). Country information Uzbekistan. Retrieved from https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/global/2016/Uzbekistan/. Accessed on 11.02.2024.
Zakon.kz (2024). The National Development Plan of Kazakhstan until 2029 has been developed Retrieved from https://www.zakon.kz/pravo/6423357-razrabotan-natsionalnyy-plan-razvitiya-kazakhstana-do-2029-goda.html. Accessed on 11.02.2024.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.