The 2024 United States presidential election marked a significant turning point in the nation’s political history. Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States for a second, non-consecutive term. Alongside his running mate, Vice President James David Vance, Trump secured victory by obtaining 312 Electoral votes, surpassing the required 270. The Democratic Party’s candidate, Kamala Harris came a close second with 226 votes (National Archives, 2024). Trump’s electoral success was largely facilitated by his ability to secure key swing states that had previously leaned Democratic. Among these states were Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. These victories not only strengthened Trump’s electoral advantage but also underscored a substantial shift in voter behaviour, hence reshaping the political landscape (Chung, 2024).
Trump’s return to the White House coincided with significant Republican gains in Congress, providing him with a strong legislative support. The Republican Party secured critical Senate races in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, reclaiming the Senate majority with a 53-47 advantage (Mutnick, 2024). Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, Republicans maintained their majority with 220 seats, whereas the Democrats got 215 seats to keep the race competitive (History, Art and Archives, 2024). The unification of the executive and legislative branches under Republican leadership placed the Trump administration in a considerably stronger position than during his first term when congressional opposition had obstructed many of his policies.
Trump’s reelection represents a rather rare occurrence in U.S. history, highlighting both the enduring influence of his political movement and the fluid preferences of the electorate. He became only the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms (Klassen, 2025). His return to office not only disrupted traditional political norms but also reaffirmed the steadfast support of the Republican voter base. In addition to securing the presidency, the Republican Party’s dominance in the Senate further enhanced the administration’s ability to implement legislative and judicial policies with long-term implications for domestic and foreign affairs. The extent to which this authority will be exercised will shape the trajectory of Trump’s second term and set new precedents in modern political leadership.
One of the most critical factors in assessing Trump’s policies and strategies is the structure of his administration. Key appointments reflect a distinct ideological approach, emphasizing nationalism, selective engagement in global affairs, and a conservative governance philosophy. These selections indicate a strategic departure from traditional globalist policies, instead prioritizing the maximization of U.S. economic, military, and geopolitical influence in specific areas (United States Department of State, 2025; Ballotpedia, 2025). The structure and decisions of his administration offer crucial insights into how the political strategies of this period will be shaped and implemented.
Trump’s 2024 administration is shaped by influential figures who support his political vision. Vice President J.D. Vance stands out as a proponent of economic nationalism, advocating for policies that protect the interests of the American working class. Secretary of State Marco Rubio adopts an assertive diplomatic approach, focusing on strategic shifts in policies toward China and NATO. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent leverages his experience in the financial sector to steer economic policies through free-market reforms and strategic tariffs. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth embraces a traditional military doctrine, prioritizing deterrence over interventionist strategies. Additionally, prominent business leaders such as Elon Musk provide advisory input on government efficiency, reinforcing the administration’s commitment to conservative economic policies and nationalist defence strategies. In a nutshell, the Trump administration prioritises a nationalist perspective, which puts American interests first and minimizes dependence on international cooperation. It ultimately shifts away from multilateral commitments and leans towards a pragmatic, transaction-based strategy in both economic and foreign policy directions.
Economic policies are being shaped in alignment with the overarching strategic objectives. Under the leadership of Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and advisor Elon Musk, the administration aims to strengthen domestic industries through free-market reforms, tax cuts, and strategic tariffs while maintaining economic stability (White House, 2025). Bessent plans to implement selective tariffs that protect key industries without causing widespread trade disruptions. Additionally, the administration is pursuing commercial initiatives such as rare-earth mineral agreements with Ukraine to bolster U.S. technological and economic dominance (Baskaran and Schwartz, 2025). With a business-oriented outlook, Bessent takes a cautious stance on regulating emerging financial markets, such as cryptocurrencies, seeking to maintain U.S. financial leadership while minimizing systemic risks (White House, 2025).
This inward-focused strategy extends to foreign policy under the leadership of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Viewing China as the United States’ primary geopolitical rival, the administration strengthens alliances within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) in the Indo-Pacific region and intensifies economic and military pressure on Beijing (Paternoster, 2025; Khasru, 2025). While NATO remains a component of U.S. security policy, Trump demands greater defence expenditures from European allies, gradually reducing America’s role as a global security guarantor (Vandiver, 2025; Cook, 2025). Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the administration prioritizes diplomatic solutions over long-term military aid to Ukraine.
Defence policy is advancing along a similar trajectory. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth advocates for a stronger deterrence capacity within the U.S. military while aiming to avoid interventionist policies. The administration prioritizes countering China’s military expansionism by increasing the U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific region while planning to reduce prolonged foreign military operations (Detsch, 2025). Domestically, Hegseth focuses on restructuring the Pentagon, minimizing ideological influences, and fostering a return to traditional military values. Security alliances will be maintained strategically, but priority will be given to bilateral agreements shaped by primary U.S. interests rather than broad international commitments (Detsch, 2025).
Within this framework, a clearer picture emerges concerning the general policies and strategic expectations of the Trump administration in both domestic and foreign affairs. When viewed within a broader context, these policies reflect a nationalist stance that redirects all resources toward U.S. interests, departing from globalist approaches. Rather than ideological commitments, the administration adopts a calculated pragmatism that prioritizes conservative strategic pursuit. In this regard, moves such as the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization and various United Nations institutions, the decision to exit the Paris Climate Agreement, and the restructuring of USAID into a more limited framework become more vivid (White House, 2025; Le Monde, 2025; Knickmeyer, 2025). Likewise, Trump’s insistence that European countries assume greater security responsibilities within NATO should be interpreted in the same context. These policy shifts are strategic steps designed to allow the administration to fully concentrate on its new priorities.
Based on the current policy trends, two primary approaches can be identified. First, in domestic affairs, the administration is expected to focus on extensive regulatory changes spanning education, fiscal policy, technological advancements, and social issues. Second, the geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting from Russia towards China (Lee and Isachenkov, 2025; Lederer, 2025). Beijing’s military and economic rise is perceived by Washington as the primary threat, prompting Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to advocate for strengthening alliances within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) to counter China’s military expansion (Crabtree, 2025). This policy shift aligns with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s statements regarding NATO. Rubio emphasizes that European nations should invest more in their own military security and hints at a potential reduction in the U.S. security guarantor role in Europe (Khasru, 2025). The Trump administration plans to allocate more resources and strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific region to contain China’s economic and military influence.
From the perspective of global economic dynamics, the Trump administration continually underscores the need to rebalance the U.S.-China trade deficit (White House, 2025). While American companies face various restrictions in the Chinese market, Chinese firms benefit from more favourable conditions in the United States (Lawder, 2025). The administration seeks to correct these imbalances through a series of economic and security policies. In this context, economic measures and regulatory actions are being implemented to reduce U.S. dependence on China and curb Beijing’s technological advancements (Reuters, 2025). These steps align with Washington’s broader nationalist strategy of prioritizing American economic and geopolitical dominance while adopting a more selective approach to international cooperation.
In early 2025, Trump signed a series of executive orders, including imposing a 10% tariff on all imports from China, citing the U.S. trade deficit with China, intellectual property rights violations, and China’s role in the fentanyl crisis as justification (White House, 2025). This sweeping tariff increase aims to strengthen the U.S. negotiating position in potential trade agreements with Beijing while reducing American reliance on Chinese-manufactured goods. Additionally, the administration has expanded the authority of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to restrict Chinese investments in strategic sectors, particularly in technology and defence, thereby limiting foreign competitors’ access to American firms. Further export controls on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors have also been tightened to prevent China from gaining access to innovations that could enhance its military and intelligence capabilities (Kaniecki, 2025).
Alongside these immediate trade-related measures, the administration has adopted a long-term supply chain diversification strategy to decrease U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing. American companies are evaluating options to relocate production facilities to other countries or bring operations back to the United States. The Trump administration is accelerating this process by promoting economic nationalism (Miao, 2025). At the same time, diplomatic initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region have intensified with strengthened partnerships with Japan, India, and Australia. The administration’s goal is to deepen regional alliances to counter China’s growing influence and establish a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order.
These policies, much like those during Trump’s first term, are reigniting tensions between the U.S. and China and are expected to have far-reaching effects on global economic and trade relations. Additionally, competition between Washington and Beijing is manifesting across multiple domains, from artificial intelligence developments to social media regulations. For example, U.S. restrictions on TikTok are being viewed as an extension of this geopolitical rivalry (Shepardson, 2025).
The Trump administration is also adopting a different approach from the Biden administration vis-a-vis the Russia-Ukraine war; framing U.S.-Russia relations within a more pragmatic, transaction-based structure. The administration prioritizes finding a swift resolution to the Ukraine crisis while securing economic advantages for the United States (Baskaran and Schwartz, 2025). To this end, it has initiated direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, aiming to reduce U.S. financial commitments, recalibrate geopolitical balances, and refocus on other strategic priorities (Smith, 2025).
A fundamental component of this strategy is the economic compensation mechanism. Washington has proposed that Ukraine allocate a significant portion of its mineral reserves, energy resources, and critical infrastructure assets to the United States as repayment for past military aid. Under the proposed agreement framework, the U.S. is expected to receive 50% of the revenues generated from Ukraine’s key economic sectors (Baskaran and Schwartz, 2025). This approach reflects Trump’s broader philosophy of managing international relations based on economic gains rather than ideological commitments.
In February 2025, diplomatic engagements accelerated as Trump held direct phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This conversation marked the first high-level direct diplomatic exchange of Trump’s second term. Following the call, both sides agreed to immediately begin negotiations aimed at ending the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz were tasked with overseeing the process (Collins, 2025). However, the exclusion of Ukrainian officials from these initial discussions sparked serious concerns in Kyiv and among European allies. The prospect of a U.S.-Russia agreement that could reshape Ukraine’s geopolitical position without Kyiv’s direct involvement created significant uncertainty in the Western world (Lee and Litvinova, 2025).
As the U.S. shifts its strategic focus on multiple fronts, these changes are expected to have significant effects on the current balance of power, with notable implications for Central Asia. Although no definitive policy has been articulated, existing trends suggest that Washington may view its rapprochement with Russia as an opportunity to expand its influence in the region. At the same time, the administration is likely to offer alternative economic incentives to attract Central Asian nations, aiming to weaken China’s economic foothold in the region. This strategy could diminish Beijing’s regional influence while increasing the financial costs of its investments.
For instance, despite China’s dominant position in infrastructure projects through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, the U.S. is expected to counterbalance this influence by offering alternative investment projects through various development agencies, such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) (Runde, 2025). This approach, which promotes economic diversification by financing projects in low- and middle-income countries, could be particularly beneficial for nations like Kazakhstan. Given that Kazakhstan pursues a multi-vector foreign policy strategy, it may help reduce its financial dependency on Beijing.
On the other hand, the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war and the restoration of stability in the region are likely to have a positive impact on Central Asian economies. Sanctions imposed on Russia had directly affected the region’s economies by disrupting trade flows and limiting economic growth (Hess, 2024). A reduction in pressures on the Russian economy could foster economic recovery in Central Asia, potentially altering regional dynamics in a favourable direction.
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Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.