On October 18, 2023, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Urumqi and met with Ma Xingrui, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and Communist Party Secretary of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Prior to that, in May 2023, Kazakh Minister of Agriculture Yerbol Karashukeyev, and in August 2023, Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade and Integration, visited Urumqi and met with the Xinjiang Communist Party secretary. Ma Xingrui himself visited Astana in March 2023 during his trip to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The intensification of political contacts between Kazakhstan’s political establishment and Xinjiang authorities resulted in boosting economic cooperation, with a growth of over 87% ($8.5 billion) of total turnover with Kazakhstan during the past six months (Jibek Joly, 2023). These developments evidence two significant changes: Xinjiang is opening up again after a period of harsh measures both before and during the pandemic, and Kazakhstan is becoming more influential in putting China’s new Xinjiang strategy into practice.
Xinjiang, in the foreign policy of China, is considered a Western gate that plays an important role in the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative . It is the main gateway for trade in goods with Europe and Central Asia, from where more than 70% of China’s total rail freight volume passes to Europe. With the establishment of the Freight Rail Logistics Centre in Urumqi in 2016, which is connected to China Railway Express (CR Express) cargo trains, Urumqi has evolved from a China-Europe rail logistic channel to an international logistic hub. The opening of the Xinjiang Pilot Free Trade Zone, with its parts in Urumqi, Kashgar, and Khorgos, in October 2023, which intends to establish all-encompassing logistical hubs between Asia and Europe, is expected to serve as another strong mechanism for enhancing Xinjiang’s transit potential (Xinhua, 2023a).
Out of 17 checkpoints in XUAR, Khorgos and Alashankol Ports in Kazakh-Chinese borders are the largest ones in China’s northwest bound (Bifolchi, 2023). Reasonably, the governments of Kazakhstan and the XUAR are working on optimizing the transit potential of their regions, especially given the fact that over 40% of the total trade volume between Kazakhstan and China comes from trade with Xinjiang (Prime Minister, 2023a).
Accordingly, one of the first steps in the post-pandemic period was to further improve the existing transport infrastructure between the sides. During the past year, Kazakh and Chinese officials agreed to modernize the trade infrastructure and border control system at the International Border Crossing Centre Khorgos and the SEZ Khorgos-Eastern Gate. Other than that, the sides agreed to build trade hubs in Urumqi and Almaty, to build the third cross-border railway port in Bakhty (Kazakhstan) and Chuguchak (China), and to establish the Kazakhstan logistics center in the Xian dry port (Prime Minister, 2023a).
In order to deepen the bilateral and border trade networks, in March 2023, the Second Friendly Dialogue of Cross-Border Cooperation between Kazakhstan and China was held in Almaty during the official visit of Ma Xingrui. The forum brought together the akims of the city of Almaty, four border regions of Kazakhstan (Abay, Zhetysu, Almaty, and Eastern Kazakhstan), and representatives of the XUAR, along with businessmen and investors from the two countries. The event resulted in the signing of contracts costing over $565 million in commercial transactions between Chinese and Kazakhstan companies (Prime Minister, 2023a). In turn, Urumqi hosted the ‘China – Eurasia International Exhibition: Goods and Trade” in August 2023, where over 40 Kazakh companies participated (Prime Minister, 2023b). Besides, on the sidelines of the China-Central Asia Summit in Xian, in May 2023, 47 business and investment-related contracts worth $22 billion were concluded, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, a mutual visa-free travel agreement, and the opening of Kazakhstan’s Consulate General in Xian (Prime Minister, 2023c).
The advancement of transit potential led to the expected increase in volumes. The amount of goods that Kazakhstan’s railroads transported in transit increased by 1.1 million metric tonnes in 2022, totaling 9.4 million metric tonnes, while transit shipments by road from China had doubled and amounted to 980,600 metric tonnes (Prime Minister, 2023a). In the first three quarters of 2023, Khorgos Customs’ cargo import and export volumes alone grew by more than 115.3% (1.36 million metric tons) (Xinhua, 2023b). Hence, the operation of the Kazakh-Chinese terminals and the port of Lianyungang has created the essential mechanisms for the efficient transportation of products, while the plans for the creation of the new third cross-border port and dry port in Xian, in addition to the advancement of existing infrastructure, may foster the perspectives of both governments in enhancing the potential of transportation.
Xinjiang is considered the largest autonomous region of China, with the largest reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal in the country. Its economy is based on agriculture, with the second largest pastureland and one of the major sheep farming industries in China. Its major export markets are bordering Central Asian markets, accounting for about 47.2% of Xinjiang’s total exports in 2020, while its major import sources come from Kazakhstan, the US, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia (HKTDC Research, 2022).
In 2022, XUAR’s total trade turnover boosted by 57%, amounting to about $33.58 billion, of which around $16.24 billion was with the Central Asian states, where Kazakhstan had the largest share (Bifolchi, 2023). During the ten months of 2023, Xinjiang’s trade amount had reached about $39.67 billion, demonstrating an increase of 48.9% in comparison to 2022 (Xinhua, 2023b). This means that the effective measures implemented by the XUAR authorities, combined with the development of Xinjiang’s transport potential, have led to the strengthening of the region’s economic indicators.
As previously noted, over the last six months, Xinjiang’s commerce with Kazakhstan increased to over 87%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the planned course. To expand bilateral trade, Kazakhstan agreed with its Chinese counterparts to prepare a map of barriers to joint trade that needed to be eliminated.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is interested in increasing its exports to China by offering a wide range of industrial and agricultural goods in 135 commodity items worth over $1 billion. Kazakh exporters are also asking China to lift prohibitions on the import of meat products from Kazakhstan that are linked to animal illnesses. Kazakh businesses can propose chilled meat products, fish products, poultry and by-products, pork, eggs, horse meat, and other high-margin items for Chinese suppliers. In addition, Kazakh authorities confirmed their willingness to raise the amount of wheat it exports to China on an annual basis to one million metric tonnes or more. Kazakh producers may also establish themselves as a reliable source of ecologically friendly agricultural goods for the Chinese market (Prime Minister, 2023c).
The significance of the agricultural sector in Xinjiang was demonstrated when Kazakh Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov visited Urumqi to meet with Xinjiang authorities and businessmen. In line with other sectors, exports of agriproducts from Kazakhstan to China increased by two times, while a working group was agreed to be established in order to expand agro-industrial cooperation (The Astana Times, 2023).
The intensification of state and business contacts between XUAR and Kazakhstan also resulted in increasing the number of passenger connections, people-to-people contacts, and the opening of tourism potential. The visa-free regime active since November 2023 reveals new opportunities for Kazakhstan and Chinese tourists and businessmen. In addition, the 2024 Kazakhstan Tourism Year in China is anticipated to boost the number of visitors from China to Kazakhstan and vice versa. It is also significant for China, given that Xinjiang authorities have their own views on tourism. In particular, XUAR’s officials view tourism as a means of advancing the Xinjiang economy and countering criticism of the region’s hardline policies. Therefore, the target to receive 400 million tourists by 2025 correlates with the opening of Xinjiang to Kazakhstan (Agence France-Presse, 2023).
XUAR authorities are also interested in promoting the interaction of scientific institutes and universities. This is evidenced by the increased level of cooperation between universities and academics on both sides. Expanding the number of quotas for free education for Kazakh students in Xinjiang is another initiative proposed by the Xinjiang government to expand people-to-people contacts.
Undoubtedly, the intensification of bilateral ties between Kazakhstan and Xinjiang emerged after the appointment of the new Party chief for Xinjiang. In comparison to the previous leader of Xinjiang, Chen Quanguo, Ma Xingrui, the new party secretary since December 2021, is a strong technocrat who previously served as the governor of Guangdong Province. He seems to have reduced repression in the region, which during the governance of Chen Quanguo had gained wide accusations due to serious human rights violations against Uyghurs and other Muslims, which was officially confirmed in the report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) (UN, 2022). Ma Xingrui is instead tasked with opening the region and attracting more foreign investment and tourists to the region.
After a protracted shutdown, Xinjiang, which was traditionally among the most popular travel destinations for tourism, healthcare, trade, and other reasons among Kazakhstan citizens, has reopened its doors. The measures taken at a very high level during the last two years demonstrate that the potential of cooperation between Kazakhstan and Xinjiang might not only fully recover but also gain new heights. With China pushing forward with its plans to restore Xinjiang’s reputation and Kazakhstan interested in reaping economic benefits from bilateral cooperation, these expectations might be realized. The strong political and economic links between Xinjiang and Kazakhstan might also help ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang cope with the peculiarities of Xinjiang policies and reconnect with their relatives on the other side of the border.
References:
Agence France-Presse (2023). State-Backed Tourism Booms in China’s Troubled Xinjiang. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/a/state-backed-tourism-booms-in-china-s-troubled-xinjiang-/7261020.html. Accessed on 8.12.2023.
Bifolchi, Giuliano (2023). Xinjiang’s role in promoting Kazakhstan-China’s trade and economic cooperation. Retrieved from https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/09/07/xinjiang-kazakhstan-china/. Accessed on 4.12.2023.
HKTDC Research (2022). Xinjiang: Market profile. Retrieved from https://research.hktdc.com/en/data-and-profiles/mcpc/provinces/xinjiang. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
Jibek Joly (2023). Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Xinjiang has grown 90% in six months. Retrieved from https://jjtv.kz/en/kazakhstan-s-trade-turnover-with-xinjiang-grows-90-in-six-months. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
Prime Minister (2023a). Kazakhstan and China sign commercial contracts worth more than $565 million. Retrieved from https://primeminister.kz/en/news/kazakhstan-and-china-sign-commercial-contracts-worth-more-than-565-million-23501. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
Prime Minister (2023b). Kazakhstan companies present their products at the Urumqi exhibition. Retrieved from https://primeminister.kz/en/news/kazakhstan-companies-present-their-products-at-urumqi-exhibition-25112. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
Prime Minister (2023c). Kazakhstan and China reached a new level of cooperation after President Tokayev’s state visit and China-Central Asia Summit. Retrieved from https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa/press/news/details/558390?lang=en. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
The Astana Times (2023). Kazakhstan, China’s Xinjiang Intend to Increase Trade Turnover to $1 Billion. Retrieved from https://astanatimes.com/2023/05/kazakhstan-chinas-xinjiang-intend-to-increase-trade-turnover-to-1-billion/. Accessed on 4.12.2023.
UN (2022). China responsible for ‘serious human rights violations’ in Xinjiang province: UN human rights report. Retrieved from https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1125932. Accessed on 21.11.2023.
Xinhua (2023a). Xinjiang Pilot Free Trade Zone approved. Retrieved from https://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestreleases/202310/31/content_WS6540c489c6d0868f4e8e0d2b.html. Accessed on 8.12.2023.
Xinhua (2023b). Xinhua Headlines: Xinjiang land ports play a robust role amid efforts to expand opening up. Retrieved from https://english.news.cn/20231125/184e947a844a43749a5f142bc23fdcb8/c.html. Accessed on 4.12.2023.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.