On January 9th, 2023, a World Social Report titled “Leaving No One Behind In An Ageing World” was published by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (UNDESA). The report is an extensive 161 pages long document that explores the issues of ageing, its economic, social, and healthcare impacts, and stresses the importance of acknowledging and considering the factor of ageing on a global scale. In recent years scientific publications dedicated to the topic of ageing have grown in number, media coverage, and importance [Mahmood & Dhakal, 2023]. This is a direct result of the increased global relevance of the topic. Before that, for years, the problem of ageing has been marginalized and it was believed to be a problem only for a selected few among the most developed countries of the world.
However, currently, according to UN DESA [2023], the issue is transforming into a global trend – “from 2021 to 2050, the population aged 65 or over in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and in Central and Southern Asia is projected to grow by more than 540 million, accounting for more than 60 percent of the global increase”. Therefore, it is vital that even countries considered relatively young, such as Kazakhstan where the average age is 32.1 years [Kazinform, 2023], pay close attention to the momentum-gaining trend. This is especially important taking into account the inherently flawed state of the economies and societies of many “younger” developing countries, as any new challenges that are not properly accounted for can result in social and political frictions that may send shockwaves through nations and whole regions.
Firstly, it is imperative to understand the causes of the worldwide population ageing and some strategies that countries employ to address those causes. Two key factors contribute to the global ageing trend – people tend to live longer and have smaller families [UN DESA, 2023]. These factors are universal and do not vary significantly based on cultural, social, or economic factors, therefore they can be applied to almost any society that undergoes the same processes [Willekens, 2014] The first factor that people tend to live longer is undoubtedly a positive one and it is a result of steady global advances in medicine, healthcare, vaccination, and education of citizens regarding illnesses, their prevention, personal hygiene and other factors [UN DESA, 2023].
However, there are some downsides to the prolonged life expectancy of populations, with the most apparent being an economic one – the aging population is less economically productive and naturally requires an increase in government spending on healthcare, social programs, and pensions. More specifically, to support an adequate lifestyle an aging population needs more medical care services, resulting in increased healthcare costs [WHO, 2020]. An adequate lifestyle can also be defined as “healthy life expectancy”; which is “analogous to life expectancy but adds a quality dimension to the quantity of life” [UN DESA, 2023], meaning that a person’s life should not be prolonged at the expense of its quality, and additional years spent struggling with diseases or disabilities hardly make one’s life better. At the same time, as the percentage of elderly citizens within a given population grows, the working-age population, which brings the most economic value and pays the highest share of taxes, shrinks, undermining the ability of the government to properly fund increased social and healthcare costs [UN, 2017].
The aforementioned issues may seem catastrophic, yet numerous policy initiatives can be enacted to address the economic problems of an ageing population. For instance, one of the most common solutions revolves around extending the period during which elderly people remain a part of the workforce. According to Nagarajan and Sixsmith (2023), policies that may help retain senior citizens within the workforce need to address the interests and barriers of all of the involved parties including employers, older employees, and the rest of the workforce. Some of the prospective policies include the development and implementation of flexible work options, such as remote work and part-time contracts; expansion of training programs for the elderly; and gradual switch of the senior citizens to more fitting job placements [Nagarajan & Sixsmith, 2023]. These policy initiatives have already been tested in many developed countries and they demonstrate certain levels of success depending on the local context. The “younger” developing countries should already start considering this experience and using it to prepare their economic, legal, and social systems for the future.
The second factor that contributes to the global ageing trend – a shrinking family size – is a much more controversial topic, especially in relatively conservative countries. It is important to understand the reasons behind this trend. For instance, UN DESA [2023] names the “incompatibility between professional careers and family life” the main factor that contributes to lower fertility and, as a result, smaller average family size. This means that as communities and nations develop, more and more women within those communities decide to have fewer children or no children at all and pursue their professional careers instead. Some other factors include “the flexibility of the labor market, the educational system, gender equity, the links between marriage and childbearing, governmental subsidies for the costs of child-rearing, the housing market, and international migration” [UN DESA, 2023]. As a result, the ratio of children per adult decreases, and in the future, when the previous generation of adults age, there will be fewer working-age adults in the economy who can support the older generation directly and with their taxes. In more severe cases, the fertility rate can fall below the replacement rate of 2.1, which refers to “a level of childbearing where each generation exactly replaces the previous one in terms of size of the nation” [UN DESA, 2023], causing the decline of the population of the country.
While the decrease in the fertility rate accelerates population aging it may not be as harmful in terms of economic effects as it implies that women’s participation in the economy grows, increasing the total output and productivity of the nation [UN DESA, 2023]. At the same time, the decrease in the fertility rate does not necessarily lead to population decline. To further protect themselves from such a possibility many countries enact policies that are meant to support the declining fertility rate and keep it above the replacement rate. Such policies may include monetary support, service provision, and employment-related support. Regarding the effectiveness of different methods of fertility rate support – it may vary highly depending on the local context. Despite that, it is possible to pinpoint some of the most broadly effective methods that can later be tested by governments and nations to further investigate their effectiveness. For instance, according to the results of extensive research by Zhang et al. (2023), “cash benefits are the most effective in promoting fertility in most countries, followed by relevant services and in-kind payments, and tax benefits.” Thus, governments can motivate citizens to increase their family sizes through direct cash benefits paid for having children, as financial stability is the key factor for people who consider having children.
Another critical factor to take into account while considering the strategies to overcome the challenges of the rapidly ageing world is care. The Aging population does not only influence the economy, labor market, and consumption patterns, it also creates a strong demand for long-term care workers. The long-term care services industry has not been keeping up with the ageing trend anywhere in the world, even in the most developed countries. Ageing is naturally accompanied by increased health risks and continuous deterioration of the organism’s basic functions. As a result, the majority of elderly people require at least some level of assistance with their everyday needs at some moment during their lives. As people get older the probability that they will face some functional limitations only increases, requiring more professional, specialized, and long-term care services. At the same time, currently, there is no region in the world where there is a sufficient number of caretakers [UN DESA, 2023]. For instance, according to the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2023), there is a 13.6 million deficit of long-term care workers globally, which has been demonstrated clearly during the recent COVID-19 epidemic, that aggravated the shortage due to the additional stress and burnouts that care workers around the world have received.
Moreover, many caretakers around the world are still underpaid and undertrained, while their work and its social impacts are still critically undervalued in societies. The main reason behind this status quo is a lack of public spending, for instance, even “among OECD countries, average public expenditure for formal long-term care was just above 1 percent of GDP in 2016 and 2020” [UN DESA, 2023]. As a result, the burden of funding the industry falls onto the shoulders of the elderly themselves, or on their closely related caregivers.
Taking that into account, countries must increase the capabilities of their long-term caring services as soon as possible, both in terms of quantity and quality. This would require “a sound regulatory framework, training and support for caregivers, coordination and integration across sectors, and mechanisms such as accreditation and monitoring to ensure quality” [UN DESA, 2023]. Moreover, the opinion of the target audience should be taken into account, which can be achieved by inviting senior citizens to participate in the development of long-term care support programs.
There is also another supporting strategy to decrease the dependence on the long-term caring industry. It requires a wide and continuous effort from institutions and societies to promote healthier lifestyles, create more self-care opportunities for people, including regular screenings, and most importantly create social systems that support and guide people whenever they need assistance regarding their health and well-being.
All in all, there is an undeniable global trend toward the rise of ageing populations across nations, regions, and continents. The developed countries were the first to take the hit and face the consequences of the trend, creating numerous strategies, policies, and practices to overcome it so that generally the “younger” developing world has a historical chance to research the amassed data and draw the necessary conclusions to meet the inevitable future preparedness.
References
Kazinform (2023). National Statistics Bureau reveals the average age of Kazakhstanis. Retrieved from https://en.inform.kz/news/national-statistics-bureau-reveals-average-age-of-kazakhstanis_a4107935 Accessed on 07.10.2023.
Mahmood, M.N., Dhakal, S.P. (2023). Ageing population and society: a scientometric analysis. Qual Quant 57, 3133–3150. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01509-3 Accessed on 27.09.2023.
Nagarajan, N.R., Sixsmith, A. (2023). Policy Initiatives to Address the Challenges of an Older Population in the Workforce. Ageing Int 48, 41–77. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1007/s12126-021-09442-w Accessed on 27.09.2023.
Sander, M., Oxlund, B., Jespersen, A., Krasnik, A., Mortensen, E. L., Westendorp, R. G., & Rasmussen, L. J. (2015). The challenges of human population ageing. Age and ageing, 44(2), 185–187. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afu189 Accessed on 27.09.2023.
UN (2017). World population prospects 2017: Key findings & advance tables. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf Accessed on 27.09.2023.
UN DESA (2023). World Social Report 2023: Leaving No One Behind in an Ageing World. Retrieved from https://social.desa.un.org/publications/undesa-world-social-report-2023 Accessed on 19.09.2023.
WHO (2020). Ageing and health. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing-and-health Accessed on 27.09.2023.
Willekens, F. (2014). Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. MPIDR Working Papers WP-2014-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-004. Accessed on 27.09.2023.
Note: The views expressed in this blog are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Institute’s editorial policy.